August 31, 2003

• One thing that is so irritating & extremely dangerous about the way the National Weather Service reports an on-coming hurricane is that they only report the distance of the CENTER of the storm! They don't mention the storm's SIZE (diameter) when mentioning how probable it will be in 'hitting' a certain area. Those of you who experienced the various hurricanes in the last 20 years that had such devastating damaging effects should know this error of omission first hand. For example, hurricanes Andrew, Hugo, Iwa, Iniki, etc., each causing millions of dollars in property damage.

  
  

   

  
  

  Right now, the East Coast has hurricane Grace headed for the Carolinas. We here in Hawaii, especially on the Big Island of Hawaii, have been watching the tracking of hurricane Jimena, as he has made a beeline for Hilo. Only in the last 12 hours has this storm changed from a tracking of WNW to almost due westerly. The Civil Defense warnings issued keep saying that this storm will pass the southern tip of our island. What they're NOT saying is that the EYE of the storm MAY pass the tip, leaving the main brunt of the storm to pass directly over the southern HALF of this island!

  
  

   

  
  

  They're also NOT saying that hurricanes often spawn tornadoes off its leading edge, or in other words, that part of the storm that WILL pass over the island! There is NO WAY, from what I have been tracking for the past 2 days, that this storm will miss this island, short of suddenly making a dog-leg due south right NOW! Already, we are experiencing the hot mugginess & sporadic rains often generated in front of storms like this. I've been watching the clouds track SOUTHERLY, toward the storm, rather than the normal east to west they follow with the Trades. Our clouds NEVER head south! To me this means those clouds are being sucked into the storm, to add more energy.

  
  

   

  
  

  Take a look at the image below & let me know what you think. My home is located approximately at the black tip of the pink feather pointer. The hurricane is headed due west. Is it going to hit my area?

  
  

   

  
  

  
  

  

  
  

   

  
  

  Updated image from 5:30 HST:

  
  

   

  
  

  

  
  

   

  
  

  View the current GIF loop here: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/satellite/Hawaii_IR_loop.gif

  
  

   

  
  

  So if I'm not back online for awhile, you'll know why. No power. Fools. I have my extra drinking water & a catchment tank full at over 3k gallons for bathing (with carrying, with no electricity for the pump to run). As long as my ancient ohia trees don't fall on my house, I'll be okay!

  
  

  
  

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  Update 9:30 HST:

  
  

  The rains are now coming down hard. The winds are picking up like crazy. I needed help to get a tarp put up over my southern living room window, which never happened, so now I'm getting mist blowing in on me as I type this. I have no glass on half of that window & my kitties pulled down the screen because they love going in & out there, onto my carport roof. I'm starting to lose my TV satellite signal on occassion because of the heavy rains.

  
  

   

  
  

  Here's what the image looked like from a half hour ago:

  
  

   

  
  

  

  
  

   

  
  

  It looks like the storm is regaining some of its intensity. Plus, I don't like that multi-cell I see trailing it. That looks especially nasty! If it joins up with Jimena... LOOK OUT! I dread what would happen if this storm decides to take a northerly turn, across ALL of the Island chain! As it is, it appears that all of the islands will see some effect from this storm!

  
  

   

  
  

  The Honolulu chanel's recent news bite indicates they've started evacuations of beach residents. I'm still not hearing that in the radio updates, which seem to be way behind (typical!).

  
  

   

  
  

  Also just learned... Charles Bronson died. Sorry, debi, I know he was one of your favorite actors.

  
  

  
  

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  Update 2:00 AM HST 01 Sept:

  
  

  So far, so good. I got awakened by vasious noises, like those of my TV, the rain on my roof, my radio & a weird song I left playing on my computer. There seems to now be two bad cells in the hurricane... the eye toward the south & another cell  almost directly east of my location. I just checked the lastest advisory, posted just minutes ago. Here's what it said:

  
  

  
  

  BULLETIN
  HURRICANE JIMENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
  2 AM HST MON SEP 1 2003
  
  ...JIMENA PASSING SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND WEAKENING SLIGHTLY...
  
  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.
  
  AT 2 AM HST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS RELOCATED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AND RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII.
  
  JIMENA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY.
  
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
  
  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES.
  
  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
  
  HEAVY RAINFALL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF JIMENA. THIS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.
  
  REPEATING THE 2 AM HST POSITION...17.5N...154.5W. MOVEMENT TOWARD... WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

  
  

  I still don't like what I see behind the storm, which has grown in intensity during all of this!

  
  

  

  
  

  Here comes the really nasty stuff!

  
  

  

  
  

  

  
  

  
  

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  Update 9:30 AM HST 01 Sept:

  
  

  Hurricane Jimena has been downgraded to a tropical storm. It's eye did track past the southern tip as predicted & what passed over the island had relatively little impact, as far as the winds were concerned. Most of what we have gotten has been the rains. That nasty-looking trailing red cell has also lessened in intensity, but has yet to pass over us.

  
  

  I have yet to walk my entire yard to check out any damage, but what areas I did walk I only found some small limbs that were dead anyway from my ohia. I also found one avocado fallen from my tree, although there should be more. A couple of my orchids were knocked off my dead Volvo, parked under my carport, but I figure that may have been one of my kitties that did that.

  
  

  It's still very warm & muggy, indicating that we're not out of the storm quite yet. The news says the effects of the storm should end by noon our time (2.5 hours). We will still have more rains from that trailing cell probably later this evening or tonight.

  
  

  I haven't heard of any power-outages, so I am presuming no giant albezzias fell or lost huge limbs on power lines. I also haven't heard anything more about beach swells, so am wondering how the beachfront property owners fared.

  
  

  Storms like this one is a good reason NOT to own beachfront property! Frankly, the storms don't even need to come near the island to cause damage to beachfront homes, due to elevated surf! They pay premium prices for the beachfront properties & heafty insurance costs... it's not worth it to me, especially considering the fact that the property errodes consistantly, losing as much as a foot each year! Also a fact is that the island is sinking at about that rate as well. Why own property that will end up in the ocean?

  
  

  My property is about 8 miles inland, approximately 750 foot elevation. I don't have to worry about those issues for centuries!

  
  

  Here's the 9 AM infra red satellite image of the downgraded tropical storm Jimena:

  
  

  

  • 11:00 pm
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